Release of key macroeconomic numbers, monthly derivatives expiry, and global cues are likely to drive stock market movement this week, according to analysts. Markets will also be reacting to remarks made by the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they said. "This week, we expect the market to witness a gradual up-move with stock-specific action.
Gold prices inched closer to the psychological mark of Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams as the bullion rates surged Rs 1,650 in the national capital on Monday on weak dollar and uncertainties over US-China trade war driving demand. According to the All India Sarafa Association, the yellow metal of 99.9 per cent purity reached Rs 99,800 per 10 grams on Monday. Its value had declined Rs 20 to close at Rs 98,150 on Friday.
However, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank, Hindustan Unilever and ICICI Bank were the gainers.
'As the markets are expected to remain jittery in the near term, we advise investors to use this opportunity to enter quality largecaps from a long-term perspective.'
Commissions paid to mutual fund distributors (MFDs) increased by over 20 per cent for most large fund houses in 2023-24 (FY24), driven by a sharp market rally and strong inflows. The largest fund house, SBI Mutual Fund (MF), which now manages nearly Rs 10 trillion in assets, paid Rs 2,025 crore to its major distributors - 21 per cent higher than the Rs 1,675 crore payout in 2022-23 (FY23).
The 100-stock largecap basket of Mutual funds (MFs) has seen a major reshuffle in the latest semi-annual reclassification with seven midcap stocks and four new listings earning the largecap tag. According to a report from Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research, the midcap stocks that have been upgraded include CG Power, Rail Vikas Nigam, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, Polycab India, Indus Towers, Cummins India, and Info Edge.
Accommodative monetary policy has driven a bull market in stocks in recent years, but the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates early next year and the U.S. Federal Reserve not long after, tempering future gains.
As record stock market rally continues, the value of shares directly owned by next-generation business leaders at 20 major corporate houses has soared over 18 per cent to Rs 17,000 crore.
Brokerage Edelweiss Securities said if the NDA returns to power with a clear majority in line with exit polls, markets would rejoice the policy continuity.
From the Sensex pack, UltraTech Cement, Infosys, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, HCL Tech and Tata Consultancy Services were the biggest gainers. Zomato tanked nearly 6 per cent followed by IndusInd Bank which declined about 5 per cent. Adani Ports, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries and Sun Pharma were also among the laggards.
All Sensex firms, except Power Grid, ended in the positive territory. Titan, Bajaj Finance, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Asian Paints and Zomato were the biggest gainers.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Steel, Power Grid, NTPC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries and Adani Ports were among the biggest gainers. Asian Paints and Tata Consultancy Services were the only laggards.
Only experienced investors with a high risk appetite, a grasp of market cycles, and comfort with volatility and timing risk should invest.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key triggers for the domestic stock markets this week, analysts said. Last week, the benchmark indices joined the broader market's party despite a host of negative global cues. In the broader market, the BSE midcap and smallcap gauges hit their all-time highs on Friday.
Among the 30 Sensex firms, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Infosys, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finance and Adani Ports were the major laggards. Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, UltraTech Cement, Sun Pharma and Reliance Industries were among the gainers.
Domestic institutional investors pumped Rs 2.3 trillion into equities during H1 CY24. Of this, mutual funds contributed 80%.
'The long-term impact of elections is minimal.'
From the Sensex pack, Tata Steel, Zomato, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Adani Ports, NTPC, State Bank of India and Reliance Industries were among the major gainers. On the other hand, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, ITC, Infosys, Sun Pharma, Maruti, HCL Tech, and Nestle were among the laggards.
From the Sensex pack, Bajaj Finserv, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, Larsen & Toubro, UltraTech Cement, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, Power Grid, Zomato, State Bank of India, HDFC Bank and Titan were the biggest gainers. Tata Motors tanked over 5.5 per cent after US President Donald Trump announced he would impose 25 per cent tariffs on imported cars. Sun Pharma, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharti Airtel, HCL Tech and Mahindra & Mahindra were also among the laggards.
Gold future prices sustained upward trend for the fourth straight session by surging Rs 2,048 to hit a fresh record high of Rs 100,000 per 10 grams as investors rushed to safe havens after US President Donald Trump indicated plans to overhaul Federal Reserve amid continuing global trade war jitters. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the August delivery contract of the yellow metal bounced by Rs 2,048 or 2.1 per cent to hit a fresh peak of Rs 100,000 per 10 grams in the mid-session trade.
With the RBI infusing Rs 7.5 lakh crore in liquidity -- and possibly more in the future -- the short- to medium-term corporate bond market is expected to benefit.
At the end of the day, for many worldwide, the ongoing mutual attacks between Israel and Iran would seem a contest devoid of any moral high ground and only a bout between two ordinary adversaries, one that nevertheless risks spinning out of control into a larger conflagration, notes Shyam G Menon.
Movement in the stock market this week will largely be driven by global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Equity benchmark indices, which are on a dream run for the past several days, will also track trading in global oil benchmark Brent crude and movement of rupee against the US dollar. "The next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting is scheduled for mid-September, but before that, the market will be closely watching upcoming US economic data.
From the Sensex pack, Zomato jumped over 7 per cent. ICICI Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, Asian Paints, Titan, Kotak Mahindra Bank and State Bank of India were among the gainers. However, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra and Reliance Industries were the laggards.
Gold prices advanced Rs 700 to reach a new lifetime high of Rs 91,950 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday on the back of continued buying by jewellers ahead of wedding season, according to the All India Sarafa Association. Besides, increased tensions in the Middle East and concerns about the US economic slowdown have kept the demand for safe-haven assets intact.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, 26 scrips closed with gains led by Tata Motors that zoomed 16.63 per cent after the company reported narrowing of losses in the September quarter.
From the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Nestle, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank and Tata Motors were the biggest gainers. However, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and UltraTech Cement were the laggards.
'Despite the current uncertainties, the long-term outlook remains constructive due to strong fundamentals, government initiatives, and a stable banking sector.'
An inconclusive end to this war will pose high risk for Netanyahu of a cascading demand for a regime change in Israel, predicts Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Among the 30 Sensex firms, Tata Motors jumped over 4 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, HCL Technologies, ITC, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra, Maruti and State Bank of India. Reliance Industries climbed nearly 2 per cent after Mukesh Ambani, chairman and managing director of the firm, said the board of the company will meet on September 5 to consider issuing bonus shares in the ratio of 1:1.
Mutual funds (MFs) reinforced their record monthly inflows in October with an investment of Rs 87,000 crore (up to October 29), softening the downside pressure on domestic markets. Their prior record for monthly inflows was Rs 48,139 crore in May. This unprecedented monthly buying partially countered record monthly sales by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) of Rs 1.1 trillion last month.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors, outcome of state elections and RBI's interest rate decision are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "Global markets are currently in a fabulous mood. The US 10-year bond yield and the dollar index are also cooling off, which gives strength to the market. These factors will be closely monitored, as they have the potential to influence market sentiment," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd. On the political front, the results of assembly elections in five states are eagerly anticipated, Gour said.
From the Sensex pack, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Adani Ports, ICICI Bank, Zomato and UltraTech Cement were among the biggest gainers. However, ITC, Nestle, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
'Of the 20 trading days of January till January 28, FIIs have been selling for 19 trading days'. 'When did FIIs withdraw money with this kind of intensity?' 'It never happened. It's the first. It did not happen even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis when Lehman went under.' 'Even then you did not have like a 19-day selling spree from the FIIs.'
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, UltraTech Cement, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, Nestle, Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever, Bajaj Finance, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra and State Bank of India were the biggest laggards. In contrast, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, JSW Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro and NTPC were among the biggest gainers.
The US Fed interest rate decision, ongoing quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data and FII trading activity are the major triggers that will drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Investors would also track global market trends and the movement in global oil prices for further cues. "This week, the focus will shift to global cues, particularly the US markets," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd said.
Trading in the equity market will largely depend on two major events this week - general elections result and the RBI interest rate decision - analysts said, adding that the benchmark indices may rally on Monday on exit polls' prediction of a massive win for the BJP-led NDA and strong GDP data. Exit polls on Saturday predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will retain power for a third straight term, with the NDA expected to win a big majority in the polls. Counting of votes will take place on June 4.
The top 100 companies have accounted for 63% of the gains (Rs 51 trillion out of Rs 81 trillion), while firms beyond the top 100 have contributed 37 per cent (Rs 30 trillion).
The rally in Indian mid-and smallcap indices thus far in calendar year 2024 (CY24) has been the best in class across the world, eclipsing the global FTSE benchmarks, and also out running peers from other leading world stock markets. This is despite the correction in the mid-and smallcap segments back home seen in the last few days, triggered by valuation concerns, geopolitical developments amid nervousness ahead of the July - September 2024 (Q2-FY25) corporate results season.
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